Obama Takes The States. This Election Means Obama Wins in 2012.
Obama got 365 electoral votes. McCain got 162. The last time an incumbent only got one term, it was Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carter got a handy 297 electoral votes vs. Gerald Ford’s 240. While Obama’s 365 isn’t quite the 489 electoral vote win Ronald Reagan enjoyed in 1980, it’s still prodigious. And Obama is no Jimmy Carter. And whoever the Republicans run, it stands to reason it ain’t gonna be a Ronald Reagan.
What that means is that Obama is going to be our president for the next 8 years. Almost guaranteed. Republicans stand a much better chance of making gains in the house and senate in 2010 and 2014, and possibly 2012, given the lessons of history. But the presidency? In 2012? At this point, if you look at the changing Demographics of the country, the long term doesn’t look great for the Republicans. Here’s how Jimmy Carter won in 1976:
The 1976 Electoral Map. It Don't Look Like That Now.
Versus how Bill Clinton won in 1992:
Here's the 1992 Electoral Map. See anything different about how Clinton won?
However, it’s not the end of the Republicans or conservatives as many on the left are crowing. Here’s two interesting maps that break out the counties by the level of Democratic and Republican votes:
It's not red and blue states, people. The states are purple. It doesn't make much to make the difference.
Compare that to the same map for 2004, where Bush won handily:
The Purple State Map for 2004. See what I'm talking about?
A stark county-by-county map of election returns for 2008. Notice something about rural areas?
Here’s the same map from 2004:
The 2004 county-by-county map. Doesn't seem nearly so stark, when you break it out by district, does it?
What does it mean? It means that demographics are shifting, but not so much that there isn’t going to be a Republican president again in 8 to 12 years. It certainly doesn’t suggest there will be permanent Democrat majorities in the house and senate, although many on the left seem to expect that.
But the maps do indicate that Democrats have a solid electoral strategy, and they may be able to play it often and better in the future. They may be able to enjoy 16 years in the Whitehouse before the Republicans find a way to respond. If then. Urban areas, which almost always go blue, are expanding in the south and west, and it shows in the election returns. And, if you trace Reagan through Obama, you see that big electoral prizes like California used to be able to go Republican and, while there’s still a lot of red in California, it’s not enough to overcome the heavy democrat voting in dense urban areas.
As always seems to be the case, central planning is going to be our undoing.
But the maps alone don’t guarantee an Obama victory in 2012. They just say, “Sure. It’s doable.”
It’s history that says Obama will in in 2012. It’s tough to unseat the incumbent party after one term. Almost never happens. Add to that historical challenge the fact of Obama’s charisma and eloquence, and the distinct electoral majority he managed to achieve, and any Republican running against him in 2012 is on a suicide mission. They better have something really unique, a really untried and different strategy–cough, cough, Ron Paul–or they might as well forget it. Mike Huckabee? Otherwise known as McCain dressed in a church?
The conclusion is foregone.
Why have that hopeless feeling for four years when you can have it for eight?
Just lookin’ at the terrain, soldier. There’s a lot of ground to be won in battles of ideas, well fought. Just looking at the lessons of history, this most recent campaign, and the shifting electoral map, and think conservatives need to focus their resources on the house and the senate, and take them very, very seriously. If we lose ground in 2010, we’re well on our way to re-learning the lessons of Europe.
“The last time an incumbent only got one term, it was Jimmy Carter.”
Do you mean incumbent democrat? Or are you excluding Bush Sr. for another reason?
Right you are. What I meant to say (but did not, so it’s no different than just plain being wrong) is that the last time the incumbent party only got one term was Jimmy Carter–meaning the Dems picked it up from the Republicans when Carter beat Ford–so the Dems got elected, got one term, and got the boot. It was 12 years of Reagan Bush, baby! Eight years of Clinton/Gore. Eight Years of Bush/Cheney. Now it’s almost sure to be Eight Years of Obamarama!
It’s less unusual for the incumbent party to lost after three terms. I should have been more clarified.
While I might agree that the United States is PURPLE for the moment, I predict that it will be blue by 2016, due to stark changes in racial and religious demographics.
There will be more multiracial citizens and fewer Americans who will adhere to Christian fundamentalism. If the Republican National Committee does not pick up on these changes, I would venture to say that RNC might not even be around for the November election in 2016.
For the Republican Party to win their fight for survival, they must abandon religious rhetoric and become inclusive to those outside their Anglo base. If they adhere to their current views, they will be gone.
Who might take their place is anyone’s guess because most conservative Christians would never vote Libertarian.